of course nothing will happen on january 1, the moment the fiscal cliff arrives. it's going to be a slow drip, drip, drip effect as people realize a slowing in spending, the taxes go up, consumers are worried. it won't happen overnight. there's going to be no dramatic over the cliff we go. instead, you will see an evaporation of confidence. you will see an evaporation of business decision-making. that is where the tumor and the cancer will begin. in the united kingdom we have just had higher borrowing numbers and lower growth forecasts. just last week the ecb came out with dreadful, dreadful numbers on how the euro zone is performing. recession this year and possibly next. and you want to play games with something as important as the u.s. budget? i'm going to finish here. the core worry is three weeks out and an inability to do a deal. >> right. so the catastrophe may not come january 1, 2 or even the 30th, the catastrophe is long term because of the erosion of public confidence in the united states. richard, thank you my, my friend. >> it's happening now. >> abso